Analytics and updates on key energy events from the B1 Moscow Energy Center.

  • Inflation across major global economies has been running rampant over recent years, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crunch, with central banks forced to tighten their monetary policy and raise interest rates in response.
  • Although energy price inflation in the euro area is slowing, prices remain high, while consumers have to increasingly rely on fossil fuels as a more easily available source.
  • Over the past two decades, gas pricing in Europe has moved away from oil indexation towards hubs as the preferred price formation mechanism driven by supply and demand, with gas-on-gas pricing making up 77% of gas volumes in 2021.
  • The LNG market last year was shaped by growing purchases in the EU and weaker demand in China, strangled by the country’s zero-COVID strategy.
  • Just a quick glance at the financial results of the five oil giants will be enough to realize that last year’s energy crisis, which is still reverberating across global markets, has been a bonanza for them.
  • E-mobility continues to gain momentum worldwide, but this trend may have a negative impact on the platinum group metals (PGM) market.
  • Though in December growth in energy prices in Europe decelerated to 25.5% YoY, the lowest rate in 2022, local consumers remain under immense pressure and are scrambling for ways to cut their energy use.
  • While experts reflect on the effects of the existing restrictions on Russian crude, another EU embargo, accompanied by a price cap, is expected to come into force on 5 February. And one may only guess how this will affect market prices globally.
  • While a pronounced tightening of monetary policies globally in 2022 in a bid to contain inflation has put downward pressure on gold.
  • 29 December 2022
    Will Russia cut its oil output? The imminent collapse awaited in 2022 never materialized. However, official estimates suggest that production will decline by 500,000-700,000 b/d in early 2023. And it’s hard to predict the reaction from global markets.
  • As we mentioned earlier this month, analysts did not anticipate a substantial rise in lithium-ion battery (LIB) prices in 2022, which were projected to grow only 2% YoY. However, more recent estimates suggest that growth may be higher than expected in June.
  • Market mechanisms are giving way to intergovernmental regulation. One of the examples is a price cap of $60 per barrel introduced this week by the G7 for Russian crude oil. In retaliation, Russia is planning to ban sales to countries applying this restriction.
  • Plug-in vehicles are becoming increasingly popular, with the number of passenger EVs on the road set to reach 77 million by 2025, or 6% of the global fleet, a notable rise from today’s 20 million.
  • The clock is ticking fast towards 5 December, the date when the EU restrictions on seaborne imports of Russian crude will take effect. Will this change the industry?
  • In our previous Energodigest, we wrote about the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, which is now followed by the World Oil Outlook, a similar set of forecasts authored by OPEC. How these forecasts have changed over the past year?
  • While there is a raft of news stories claiming that the world’s biggest economies are widely switching back to fossil fuels and aren’t going to give them up soon, the stats paint a different picture.
  • The global market for copper is already struggling to bridge the gap between supply and demand, which may widen even further in the coming years.
  • As the energy crisis deepens, creeping more and more into aluminum territory, the future of Europe’s solar and battery cell manufacturing becomes less certain.
  • At the JMMC meeting last week, OPEC+ decided to make the biggest output cut since May 2020 and extend its production co-operation agreement until the end of 2023, a move not expected by many.
  • The leaks discovered last week in two natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea have not only prompted major concern among climate activists, but have also brought renewed limelight on the ailing gas market.
  • While oil product prices are generally on the decline, reflecting the downward momentum for crude, they are still much higher than last September.
Previous issues
  • Nuclear power is again on the radar as the energy crisis picks up steam, with no letup in sight.
  • The oil market is now in ‘a state of schizophrenia,’ as the Saudi Energy Minister put it at the end of August, alluding to irrational pricing mechanisms.
  • While the EU is considering a price cap on Russian gas European businesses are trying hard to curb staggering energy costs in order to stay afloat.
  • Oil has lost 20% of its value since June, largely on fears of waning demand in response to global recession and further monetary tightening by many regulators, including the Fed with its ‘hawk’ rhetoric.
  • While many pessimists deny a future to renewables, global renewable energy funding hit a new high.
  • Storage facilities across Europe are gradually being replenished, but it’s important to understand how fast the accumulated gas stockpiles will be used this coming winter.
  • Projections of global economic growth keep getting worse. In late July, the IMF adjusted its expectations vs. April.
  • While Russian companies were selling crude and petroleum products at a discount resulting from geopolitical pressure, global corporations in Q2 2022 feasted on the victorious return of fossil fuel.
  • Russian crude continues to sell cheaper than the North Sea benchmark, with a barrel of Urals offered at an average discount of $21 in July.
  • While the energy crisis continues to wreak havoc on Western economies, it is also felt keenly in the East.
  • While at the beginning it seemed that supply disruptions would only last for a couple of months, it’s now becoming clear that the lack of gas will remain a pressing issue in the coming winter and it’s unlikely to be resolved until 2024.
  • More and more countries are stepping back from their push to scrap coal-fired power generation – at least for now.
  • Europe is still struggling after it banned Russian oil imports, and the debate about Russia’s ‘black gold’ is now in full swing.
  • Just as ten years ago, the world is now threatened by a major food crisis, with the food price index rising 25% y-o-y in May to an almost record high.
  • Import substitution is the burning issue not only for Russia. Energy-dependent countries are now racing to find alternatives to Russian supplies, with some of them even restarting mothballed coal mines.
  • The energy crunch that started last year has continued into 2022 amid growing geopolitical unrest, with the climate agenda now seeming to take a U-turn.
Russia and CIS oil and gas quarterly review
We are glad to present a new issue of the Russia and CIS Oil and Gas Quarterly Review, prepared by the B1 Moscow Energy Center.
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