While OPEC and the IEA differ in their forecasts, experts agree that crude will remain a dominant part of the global energy mix at least until 2050 (see Fig. 4). In the aftermath of the pandemic, securing investment in the oil sector is becoming a challenging task — all the more so in light of the climate agenda. OPEC has upped its forecast of oil-related investment requirements from $9.2 trillion to $12.1 trillion, with 78.5% to be earmarked for exploration and production.
Next year, expectations might be adjusted further, impacted by a wealth of factors, with the most obvious being the outcomes of COP 27 and the US midterms.
In the prevailing uncertainty, it’s hard to predict which of the two organizations — OPEC or the IAE — will prove more accurate in their forecasts. The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle.